Starmer's Backers Initiate 'Block Andy Burnham' Drive to Block Manchester Mayor's Parliamentary Return

Close associates of Labour leader Keir Starmer have allegedly set in motion a coordinated effort to prevent Andy Burnham, the Labour Greater Manchester Mayor, from securing a comeback to the House of Commons. This move comes after the stepping down of a Manchester MP, which has triggered an impending byelection.

Significant Barriers in the Candidate Selection Procedure

A number of figures on the Labour Party's ruling NEC have apparently suggested it would be virtually impossible for Mr. Burnham to navigate the selection process. This is primarily due to the sizable presence of supporters of the Prime Minister on the body who are anxious to head off any future leadership challenge.

The Labour party machine is said to have swung into action following the revelation of the MP's intended departure, with officials and MPs raising concerns about the substantial financial cost and political risk of a subsequent election for mayor in Greater Manchester.

The Mayor's Aspirations and Party Concerns

Andy Burnham has made no secret of his national ambitions. Last year, he caused consternation in Downing Street and among cabinet ministers when he remarked that numerous MPs had urged him to stand for the Labour leadership.

It has long been believed that he is aiming for a seat in the Commons to possibly contest the party leadership if a challenge to Sir Keir arise. Nevertheless, supporters of the Greater Manchester Mayor have cautioned against exaggerating the extent of any planning, stating he is passionate about his job as mayor and would only re-enter national politics if he felt he had something to contribute.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a supporter stated.

Political Landscape and Public Approval

Amid opinion polls suggesting Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's fate at the next election, Andy Burnham is seen as the only senior Labour personality with consistently positive ratings with the public.

Should Mr. Burnham choose to stand, several obstacles remain. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the odds are stacked against him—and then secure victory in the byelection against competition from Reform and pro-Gaza independents, all before any possible leadership challenge.

Efforts to Block Burnham

Senior Labour sources have indicated that a "Block Burnham" campaign is already in progress, with the party machinery being closely managed by senior aides of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister himself commented that the byelection process was in its "initial phases" and told his MPs to stop talking about potential leadership challenges.

Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's departure was finalised, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Financial and Political Dangers

NEC members have allegedly cited not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could divert around ÂŁ500,000 in party funding from other key electoral battles across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," an insider claimed.

A number of sources also expressed fears about Reform UK attempting to win the mayoralty left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major symbolic victory for them.

Union Influence and Democratic Concerns

As a publicly elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to stand. It is also possible the committee could enforce an all-female shortlist to prevent his candidacy.

However, one Burnham ally counselled against presuming the NEC would simply block his candidacy, even though Sir Keir's team is largely believed to control it.

The unions hold a sizable number of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are for now keeping their counsel, sources indicated they would be opposed to anything perceived as meddling from Downing Street.

The leader of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

Electoral Challenges

The seat in question has a sizable Labour lead. However, Reform UK is likely to launch a strong challenge, capitalising on support in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on firmer ground in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could face some pressure from independent candidates.

Should Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to mount a bid for the leadership, a requirement that is far from certain given he is viewed with scepticism by a number of on the parliamentary party.

The departing MP stated he was stepping down due to deteriorating mental health, which had made it untenable for him to carry on in his role. He also remains subject to a standards inquiry related to his membership in an offensive online group.

Susan Sullivan
Susan Sullivan

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