🔗 Share this article

Back in October 2022, when Rishi Sunak assumed office as British prime minister, he became the fifth consecutive UK leader to occupy the position in six years.

Unleashed on the UK by Brexit, this signified exceptional governmental instability. So what term captures what is unfolding in the French Republic, now on its sixth prime minister in two years – three of them in the past 10 months?

The latest prime minister, the recently reappointed Sébastien Lecornu, may have secured a temporary reprieve on Tuesday, abandoning Emmanuel Macron’s flagship pensions overhaul in return for support from Socialist lawmakers as the cost of his government’s survival.

But it is, at best, a short-term solution. The EU’s number two economic power is locked in a ongoing governmental crisis, the scale of which it has not witnessed for decades – possibly not since the establishment of its Fifth Republic in 1958 – and from which there seems no easy escape.

Governing Without a Majority

Essential context: from the moment Macron initiated an ill-advised snap general election in 2024, France has had a hung parliament split into three opposing factions – left, far right and his own centre-right alliance – none with anything close to a majority.

At the same time, the nation faces twin financial emergencies: its national debt level and deficit are now almost twice the EU limit, and strict legal timelines to approve a 2026 budget that at least begins to rein in spending are nigh.

In this challenging environment, both the prime ministers before Lecornu – Michel Barnier, who served from September to December 2024, and François Bayrou, who took office from December 2024 to September 2025 – were ousted by the assembly.

In mid-September, the president appointed his close ally Lecornu as his latest PM. But when, a little over two weeks ago, Lecornu unveiled his new cabinet – which turned out to be much the same as the old one – he faced fury from allies and opponents alike.

To such an extent that the next day, he stepped down. After only 27 days as premier, Lecornu became the briefest-serving prime minister in modern French history. In a respectful address, he blamed political intransigence, saying “partisan attitudes” and “certain egos” would make his job all but impossible.

A further unexpected development: shortly after Lecornu’s resignation, Macron requested he remain for another 48 hours in a last-ditch effort to secure multi-party support – a task, to put it mildly, not without complications.

Next, two ex-prime ministers publicly turned on the embattled president. Meanwhile, the far-right National Rally (RN) and radical left France Unbowed (LFI) declined to engage with Lecornu, promising to vote down all future administrations unless there were early elections.

Lecornu persisted in his duties, talking to everyone who was prepared to hear him out. At the conclusion of his extension, he appeared on television to say he believed “a path still existed” to avoid elections. The leader's team announced the president would appoint a new prime minister two days later.

Macron honored his word – and on Friday reappointed Sébastien Lecornu. So recently – with Macron helpfully sniping from the sidelines that the nation's opposing groups were “fuelling division” and “entirely to blame for the turmoil” – was Lecornu’s critical test. Would he endure – and can he pass that vital budget?

In a high-stakes speech, the 39-year-old PM spelled out his budget priorities, giving the centre-left Socialist party (PS), who oppose Macron’s unpopular pension overhaul, what they were waiting for: Macron’s key policy would be suspended until 2027.

With the right-wing LR already on board, the Socialists said they would refuse to support censorship votes proposed against Lecornu by the extremist factions – meaning the administration would likely endure those ballots, due on Thursday.

It is, however, by no means certain to be able to pass its planned €30bn budget squeeze: the PS explicitly warned that it would be seeking more concessions. “This,” said its leader, Olivier Faure, “is just the start.”

Changing Political Culture

The problem is, the more Lecornu cedes to the centre-left, the more opposition he'll face from the right. And, similar to the Socialists, the right-leaning parties are themselves split on dealing with the administration – some are still itching to topple it.

A glance at the parliamentary arithmetic shows how tough Lecornu’s task – and future viability – will be. A total of 264 deputies from the far-right RN, radical-left LFI, Greens, Communists and UDR want him out.

To succeed, they need a 288-vote majority in parliament – so if they can persuade just 24 of the PS’s 69 members or the LR’s 47 representatives (or both) to vote with them, Macron’s fifth precarious prime minister in 24 months is, similar to his forerunners, toast.

Most expect this to occur soon. Although, by some miracle, the dysfunctional assembly musters collective will to approve a budget this year, the prospects for the government beyond that look bleak.

So does an exit exist? Early elections would be unlikely to solve the problem: polls suggest pretty much every party bar the RN would lose seats, but there would remain no decisive majority. A new prime minister would face the same intractable arithmetic.

Another possibility might be for Macron himself to step down. After a presidential vote, his successor would dissolve parliament and aim for a legislative majority in the ensuing legislative vote. But that, too, is uncertain.

Surveys show the future president will be Le Pen or Bardella. There is at least an odds-on chance that French electorate, having elected a far-right president, might think twice about handing them control of parliament.

In the end, France may not emerge from its quagmire until its leaders acknowledge the changed landscape, which is that clear majorities are a bygone phenomenon, winner-takes-all no longer applies, and compromise is not synonymous with failure.

Many think that cultural shift will not be feasible under the country’s current constitution. “This isn't a standard political crisis, but a crise de régime” that will prove anything but temporary.

“The regime … was never designed to facilitate – and actively discourages – the formation of ruling alliances common in the rest of Europe. The Fifth Republic may well have entered its terminal phase.”